Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 15%-20%?
open
Total volume
$2,908
$167 in 24h
Trades
231
Unique wallets
60
Liquidity
$4,339
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-24
last 10-27 21:56
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-27.3¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $177
vs crowd: 29% YES on $2.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 21 | $382 | $1.1K | $759 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 27 | $251 | $434 | $183 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $12 | $72 | $61 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $18 | — | +$18 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 9 | $3 | $174 | $172 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $26 | $144 | $118 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $23 | — | +$23 |
| Below median | 7 | $22 | $28 | $6 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $37 | $114 | $77 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 13 | $135 | $211 | $77 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 18 | $419 | $977 | $558 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +1,129 | $300 | $300 | 29 | 10-27 21:56 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +743 | $488 | $488 | 13 | 10-19 12:05 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +113 | $26 | $26 | 8 | 10-13 16:24 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +100 | $73 | $73 | 5 | 10-27 21:56 |
| Cloudy-Injustice 0xe040…824f | No | +85 | $63 | $63 | 1 | 09-22 12:19 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +76 | $54 | $55 | 3 | 10-26 09:50 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +76 | $23 | $25 | 2 | 10-26 10:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +65 | $48 | $48 | 6 | 09-22 12:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | +61 | $45 | $45 | 1 | 10-11 15:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +60 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 10-13 06:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +60 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 10-13 06:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +46 | $35 | $35 | 2 | 09-22 12:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | Yes | +40 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-11 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +40 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-11 07:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | +40 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 10-11 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | No | +40 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 10-11 09:14 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | +32 | $11 | $22 | 4 | 10-26 23:12 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | +32 | $27 | $66 | 4 | 10-14 11:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xa278…3369 | No | +27 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 09-22 12:19 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle 0x1ee9…197f | No | +22 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-11 15:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +20 | $9 | $24 | 4 | 10-26 23:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +20 | $9 | $19 | 4 | 10-14 07:10 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-21 02:25 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 09-22 07:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | +20 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-14 04:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xda65…e87e | Yes | +20 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-11 16:42 |
| Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-11 16:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-26 09:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +20 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 10-14 10:32 |
| Peppery-Capital 0x7c3d…5c6b | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-21 02:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +20 | $15 | $43 | 3 | 10-11 15:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-11 15:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-14 08:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-26 10:49 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | No | +20 | $23 | $139 | 2 | 09-21 05:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +20 | $15 | $43 | 3 | 10-11 15:24 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 09-22 07:36 |
| Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-11 15:24 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 08-24 11:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | +15 | $12 | $39 | 2 | 10-14 04:24 |
| Baggy-Scissors 0xafe5…a9e3 | No | +14 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-19 06:16 |
| Peppery-Capital 0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | +14 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-23 00:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +13 | $4 | $17 | 3 | 10-17 09:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | +13 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-17 09:26 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 09-21 16:18 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 09-21 04:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 09-22 08:31 |
| Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | No | +9 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 09-26 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +8 | $6 | $42 | 5 | 10-13 16:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +8 | $4 | $15 | 3 | 10-10 07:01 |
| Every-Boat 0x18cf…d612 | Yes | +7 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 09-23 00:20 |
| Male-Middleman 0x8f8b…7e1f | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-23 00:20 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-26 10:49 |
| Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-12 03:01 |
| Infatuated-Nun 0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | +1 | -$2 | $54 | 4 | 10-26 23:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 21:56:15 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 71¢ | $14 | 0x1dfc21… |
| 10-27 21:56:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x1dfc21… |
| 10-26 23:12:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 167 | 28¢ | $47 | 0x71687a… |
| 10-26 23:12:14 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 28¢ | $8 | 0x71687a… |
| 10-26 23:12:14 | Infatuated-Nun 0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | SELL | 99 | 28¢ | $28 | 0x71687a… |
| 10-26 23:12:14 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0x71687a… |
| 10-26 23:12:14 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x71687a… |
| 10-26 11:01:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x3123f6… |
| 10-26 11:01:14 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x3123f6… |
| 10-26 10:49:17 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x8997bc… |
| 10-26 10:49:17 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x8997bc… |
| 10-26 10:49:08 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x91af9e… |
| 10-26 10:49:08 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0x91af9e… |
| 10-26 09:50:59 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0x456607… |
| 10-26 09:50:59 | (anonymous) 0xa89c…1410 | No | BUY | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0x456607… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 60 | 71¢ | $43 | 0x896c1b… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x3997b8… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | No | SELL | 33 | 72¢ | $24 | 0x896c1b… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x3997b8… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 30¢ | $24 | 0x3997b8… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 30¢ | $5 | 0x8edf64… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x896c1b… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x896c1b… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | SELL | 120 | 30¢ | $36 | 0x3997b8… |
| 10-26 09:50:57 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 16 | 70¢ | $12 | 0x8edf64… |
| 10-19 12:06:30 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x3b7338… |
| 10-19 12:06:30 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x3b7338… |
| 10-19 12:05:26 | Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb383a4… |
| 10-19 12:05:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xb383a4… |
| 10-19 06:16:48 | Baggy-Scissors 0xafe5…a9e3 | No | BUY | 14 | 70¢ | $10 | 0x09e13a… |
| 10-19 06:16:48 | Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | No | SELL | 14 | 70¢ | $10 | 0x09e13a… |
| 10-18 23:15:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 31¢ | $4 | 0x7c4f7d… |
| 10-18 23:15:45 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 31¢ | $4 | 0x7c4f7d… |
| 10-17 09:26:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 13 | 69¢ | $9 | 0xe0b748… |
| 10-17 09:26:17 | (anonymous) 0x0dfe…e95b | No | SELL | 13 | 69¢ | $9 | 0xe0b748… |
| 10-17 09:26:12 | (anonymous) 0x0dfe…e95b | No | BUY | 13 | 72¢ | $10 | 0x746426… |
| 10-17 09:26:12 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | BUY | 13 | 72¢ | $10 | 0x25af2f… |
| 10-17 09:26:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 28¢ | $4 | 0x25af2f… |
| 10-17 09:26:12 | (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | BUY | 13 | 28¢ | $4 | 0x746426… |
| 10-15 01:28:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 30¢ | $12 | 0x955bc0… |
| 10-15 01:28:32 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x955bc0… |
| 10-15 01:28:32 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x955bc0… |
| 10-14 23:45:18 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | No | BUY | 33 | 74¢ | $24 | 0xea3a1b… |
| 10-14 23:45:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 26¢ | $9 | 0xea3a1b… |
| 10-14 22:15:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 60 | 67¢ | $40 | 0xf1d13d… |
| 10-14 22:15:24 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0xf1d13d… |
| 10-14 22:15:24 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0xf1d13d… |
| 10-14 22:15:24 | (anonymous) 0xaa42…4ef6 | No | SELL | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0xf1d13d… |
| 10-14 19:17:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 25 | 66¢ | $16 | 0x01ded3… |
| 10-14 19:17:07 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | SELL | 25 | 66¢ | $16 | 0x01ded3… |
| 10-14 18:40:45 | (anonymous) 0xaa42…4ef6 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x12e4c1… |
| 10-14 18:40:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x12e4c1… |
| 10-14 15:03:39 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | SELL | 20 | 56¢ | $11 | 0x6842f8… |
| 10-14 15:03:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 56¢ | $11 | 0x6842f8… |
| 10-14 14:08:11 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | SELL | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0xc72bc0… |
| 10-14 14:08:11 | (anonymous) 0xe661…f84a | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0xc72bc0… |
| 10-14 11:03:08 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | BUY | 25 | 70¢ | $18 | 0xec74c9… |
| 10-14 11:03:08 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0xec74c9… |
| 10-14 11:03:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 30¢ | $21 | 0xec74c9… |
| 10-14 11:03:08 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 30¢ | $8 | 0xec74c9… |
| 10-14 10:32:59 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xddb40c… |
| 10-14 10:32:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 25¢ | $15 | 0xddb40c… |
| 10-14 10:32:59 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xddb40c… |
| 10-14 10:32:59 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0xddb40c… |
| 10-14 08:44:50 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x3eb7c6… |
| 10-14 08:44:50 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x3eb7c6… |
| 10-14 08:44:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 24¢ | $14 | 0x3eb7c6… |
| 10-14 08:44:50 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0x3eb7c6… |
| 10-14 08:28:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xa6a95a… |
| 10-14 08:28:40 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xa6a95a… |
| 10-14 07:10:46 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x2626db… |
| 10-14 07:10:46 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x2626db… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 149 | 67¢ | $100 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 33¢ | $8 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 24 | 67¢ | $16 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | SELL | 20 | 67¢ | $13 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda 0x29ef…ddda | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-14 04:24:34 | (anonymous) 0x0b14…f1f5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 33¢ | $7 | 0x22e4b5… |
| 10-13 16:24:21 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | SELL | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x8d44f1… |
| 10-13 16:24:21 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x8d44f1… |
| 10-13 14:41:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 30¢ | $19 | 0x8f76fe… |
| 10-13 14:41:49 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0x8f76fe… |
| 10-13 14:41:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 30¢ | $13 | 0x8f76fe… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 39¢ | $9 | 0x71d5fe… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x71d5fe… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 39¢ | $23 | 0x71d5fe… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | BUY | 60 | 66¢ | $40 | 0x02b058… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 136 | 61¢ | $83 | 0x71d5fe… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 34¢ | $15 | 0x02b058… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 16 | 66¢ | $11 | 0x02b058… |
| 10-13 06:59:38 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 32 | 61¢ | $20 | 0x71d5fe… |
| 10-12 03:01:29 | Worried-Dinghy 0x8482…3f7a | Yes | BUY | 2 | 38¢ | $1 | 0xbfc618… |
| 10-12 03:01:29 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 38¢ | $1 | 0xbfc618… |
| 10-11 16:42:43 | (anonymous) 0x434f…436f | No | SELL | 20 | 64¢ | $13 | 0xb1a8b6… |
| 10-11 16:42:43 | (anonymous) 0xda65…e87e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 36¢ | $7 | 0xb1a8b6… |
| 10-11 16:42:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 64¢ | $26 | 0xb1a8b6… |
| 10-11 16:10:43 | (anonymous) 0x8467…d3ed | No | BUY | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0xb622f4… |
| 10-11 16:10:43 | Scary-Holder 0xdc53…cb5e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0xb622f4… |