Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 30%-35%?
open
Total volume
$7,447
$104 in 24h
Trades
533
Unique wallets
97
Liquidity
$10,447
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-24
last 11-08 15:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+9.6¢
(top1%: 48% YES on $646
vs crowd: 38% YES on $5.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 35 | $668 | $2.0K | $1.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 36 | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$55 |
| 🐟 Fish | 20 | $249 | $151 | +$98 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $23 | $18 | +$5 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 16 | $310 | $336 | $26 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $404 | $7 | +$398 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $89 | $26 | +$63 |
| Median | 1 | — | $18 | $18 |
| Below median | 8 | $31 | $44 | $13 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $35 | $52 | $17 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 19 | $294 | $647 | $353 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 37 | $728 | $2.1K | $1.4K |
| unranked | 1 | $137 | — | +$137 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +943 | $461 | $461 | 37 | 11-08 15:21 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +799 | $207 | $221 | 28 | 10-26 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | +227 | $202 | $202 | 6 | 11-08 15:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +185 | -$95 | $274 | 5 | 09-22 11:09 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +163 | $45 | $45 | 11 | 10-27 19:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +160 | $52 | $76 | 10 | 10-19 22:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +160 | $120 | $178 | 8 | 10-27 05:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +148 | $42 | $42 | 7 | 10-22 21:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +148 | $110 | $110 | 7 | 10-22 21:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x5285…bd80 | Yes | +144 | $137 | $137 | 4 | 11-08 15:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +140 | $44 | $44 | 2 | 10-12 07:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +140 | $102 | $102 | 3 | 10-12 07:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +133 | $44 | $64 | 10 | 10-27 19:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +133 | $94 | $94 | 7 | 10-27 19:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +120 | $89 | $89 | 5 | 10-14 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +120 | $35 | $50 | 9 | 10-14 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x1491…fd70 | No | +100 | $78 | $112 | 3 | 10-06 19:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +93 | $63 | $63 | 9 | 10-22 03:47 |
| Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | +89 | $38 | $38 | 2 | 11-04 03:06 |
| Perfect-Neighbourhood 0x8d85…726f | No | +83 | $49 | $49 | 5 | 09-20 21:35 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | +80 | $26 | $27 | 5 | 10-14 12:34 |
| Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | +80 | $59 | $62 | 6 | 10-15 10:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | +80 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 10-14 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cf6…3ed9 | No | +80 | $58 | $58 | 1 | 10-12 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +75 | $52 | $52 | 6 | 09-22 11:16 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | +61 | $18 | $27 | 4 | 10-14 14:37 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +61 | $45 | $45 | 2 | 10-14 12:34 |
| Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | +53 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 10-06 23:50 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +48 | $38 | $38 | 3 | 09-22 11:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | +46 | $14 | $14 | 4 | 11-04 09:51 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +44 | $36 | $36 | 4 | 09-20 21:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +40 | $13 | $14 | 3 | 10-21 20:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +40 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 10-26 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +40 | $27 | $27 | 2 | 10-21 19:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +40 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 10-26 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +39 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 11-04 09:51 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +38 | $29 | $29 | 2 | 09-20 11:28 |
| Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | +38 | $35 | $93 | 7 | 10-27 15:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +32 | $26 | $56 | 5 | 10-15 10:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +32 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-14 12:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +27 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-19 22:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | +25 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 10-27 19:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | +25 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-27 19:18 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +25 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 10-27 19:18 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +25 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-27 19:18 |
| Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | No | +24 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 09-26 15:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +23 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 09-20 21:32 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | Yes | +22 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-12 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | +22 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 09-20 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e7c…fa1d | Yes | +20 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-19 12:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-08 11:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-26 12:58 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | +20 | $6 | $18 | 3 | 10-27 15:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-20 03:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 09-20 11:28 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-27 15:00 |
| Slimy-Coin 0x2b73…174e | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-12 22:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e7c…fa1d | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-19 08:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | No | +20 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-08 11:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-21 00:47 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-08 15:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0xbfcb14… |
| 11-08 15:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x5285…bd80 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0xbfcb14… |
| 11-08 15:21:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 104 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xbfcb14… |
| 11-07 15:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x5285…bd80 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0x2ed9de… |
| 11-07 15:21:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 104 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x2ed9de… |
| 11-07 15:21:54 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 95¢ | $49 | 0x2ed9de… |
| 11-06 15:21:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6421e2… |
| 11-06 15:21:52 | (anonymous) 0x5285…bd80 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x6421e2… |
| 11-06 15:20:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x566b9c… |
| 11-06 15:20:52 | (anonymous) 0x5285…bd80 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x566b9c… |
| 11-04 21:46:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x636388… |
| 11-04 21:46:33 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x636388… |
| 11-04 21:18:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6f095c… |
| 11-04 21:18:15 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x6f095c… |
| 11-04 09:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 84¢ | $16 | 0x9913c1… |
| 11-04 09:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 19 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x9913c1… |
| 11-04 09:51:15 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | BUY | 14 | 21¢ | $3 | 0xb1b30a… |
| 11-04 09:51:15 | (anonymous) 0x2771…6d24 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 76¢ | $49 | 0xb1b30a… |
| 11-04 09:51:15 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 75¢ | $23 | 0xb1b30a… |
| 11-04 03:06:03 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x40b005… |
| 11-04 03:06:03 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 17 | 80¢ | $13 | 0x40b005… |
| 11-04 03:06:03 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | SELL | 12 | 80¢ | $10 | 0x40b005… |
| 11-04 02:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x7a55…9e6b | Yes | BUY | 10 | 35¢ | $4 | 0x55a9d2… |
| 11-04 02:10:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 52 | 65¢ | $34 | 0xf9bd05… |
| 11-04 02:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 35¢ | $4 | 0x55a9d2… |
| 11-04 02:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0xf9bd05… |
| 11-04 02:10:33 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 72 | 35¢ | $25 | 0xf9bd05… |
| 10-30 03:33:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 22 | 72¢ | $16 | 0x59be49… |
| 10-30 03:33:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 22 | 72¢ | $16 | 0x59be49… |
| 10-28 13:16:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 18 | 72¢ | $13 | 0x6022da… |
| 10-28 13:16:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 18 | 72¢ | $13 | 0x6022da… |
| 10-27 19:18:27 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | BUY | 0 | 68¢ | $0 | 0x35548d… |
| 10-27 19:18:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xe37047… |
| 10-27 19:18:27 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 25 | 71¢ | $18 | 0xe37047… |
| 10-27 19:18:27 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 0 | 68¢ | $0 | 0x35548d… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | BUY | 25 | 71¢ | $18 | 0xa98c22… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0x0f3e3f… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 25 | 71¢ | $18 | 0x0f3e3f… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xbf1bb2… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | SELL | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xbf1bb2… |
| 10-27 19:18:26 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xa98c22… |
| 10-27 15:00:21 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 29¢ | $0 | 0x13e66e… |
| 10-27 15:00:21 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 0 | 71¢ | $0 | 0x13e66e… |
| 10-27 15:00:12 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | No | BUY | 20 | 71¢ | $14 | 0xf0f683… |
| 10-27 15:00:12 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 20 | 71¢ | $14 | 0xf0f683… |
| 10-27 15:00:12 | (anonymous) 0xd5be…18e1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xe60ec9… |
| 10-27 15:00:12 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0xe60ec9… |
| 10-27 15:00:11 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xef4bc2… |
| 10-27 15:00:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0xef4bc2… |
| 10-27 06:51:45 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x4cf676… |
| 10-27 06:51:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0x4cf676… |
| 10-27 05:42:50 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 40 | 73¢ | $29 | 0x74870e… |
| 10-27 05:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | SELL | 40 | 73¢ | $29 | 0x74870e… |
| 10-26 12:58:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x7ea91f… |
| 10-26 12:58:48 | (anonymous) 0x8bac…5b0e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x7ea91f… |
| 10-26 12:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x8bac…5b0e | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xfa3f91… |
| 10-26 12:52:39 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xfa3f91… |
| 10-26 12:52:02 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x99684c… |
| 10-26 12:52:02 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 40 | 81¢ | $32 | 0x99684c… |
| 10-26 12:52:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 130 | 19¢ | $25 | 0x99684c… |
| 10-26 12:52:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 50 | 19¢ | $9 | 0x99684c… |
| 10-26 12:52:02 | (anonymous) 0x8f69…2923 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x99684c… |
| 10-26 04:55:06 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xc20d5e… |
| 10-26 04:55:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xc20d5e… |
| 10-25 22:26:26 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xb01292… |
| 10-25 22:26:26 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xb01292… |
| 10-25 22:25:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x157cd6… |
| 10-25 22:25:59 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x157cd6… |
| 10-25 00:30:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x16c58f… |
| 10-25 00:30:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x16c58f… |
| 10-24 08:59:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xcf527c… |
| 10-24 08:59:15 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 8 | 84¢ | $7 | 0xcf527c… |
| 10-23 22:09:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x059383… |
| 10-23 22:09:27 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 18 | 82¢ | $15 | 0x059383… |
| 10-23 00:50:02 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7ec849… |
| 10-23 00:50:02 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x7ec849… |
| 10-23 00:44:56 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x890f6e… |
| 10-23 00:44:56 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x890f6e… |
| 10-22 22:44:23 | (anonymous) 0xbf23…f987 | No | SELL | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x2e2e91… |
| 10-22 22:44:23 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 10 | 79¢ | $8 | 0x2e2e91… |
| 10-22 22:44:11 | (anonymous) 0xbf23…f987 | No | BUY | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0x9f1492… |
| 10-22 22:44:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x9f1492… |
| 10-22 21:46:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xcbf4eb… |
| 10-22 21:46:08 | (anonymous) 0xe858…12a9 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xcbf4eb… |
| 10-22 21:43:59 | (anonymous) 0xe858…12a9 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xb084a3… |
| 10-22 21:43:59 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xb084a3… |
| 10-22 21:43:57 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | BUY | 8 | 70¢ | $5 | 0x925421… |
| 10-22 21:43:57 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0x925421… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0x793aad… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 30¢ | $3 | 0x793aad… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 70¢ | $14 | 0xf8c6ee… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 30¢ | $9 | 0x793aad… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | No | BUY | 9 | 70¢ | $6 | 0x3cbb39… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | BUY | 8 | 30¢ | $2 | 0xaad047… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 11 | 70¢ | $8 | 0xaad047… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0xaad047… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xf8c6ee… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | SELL | 119 | 30¢ | $36 | 0x793aad… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 30¢ | $3 | 0x3cbb39… |
| 10-22 21:43:56 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 60 | 30¢ | $18 | 0x793aad… |