Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 30%-35%?
open
Total volume
$4,197
$1,073 in 24h
Trades
319
Unique wallets
80
Liquidity
$18,777
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-24
last 10-26 19:00
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+4.6¢
(top1%: 20% YES on $383
vs crowd: 16% YES on $3.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 30 | $162 | $1.5K | $1.3K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 30 | $265 | $662 | $397 |
| 🐟 Fish | 16 | $56 | $459 | $402 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 18 | $78 | $305 | $227 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $9 | $344 | $335 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| Median | 2 | $14 | $31 | $18 |
| Below median | 8 | $98 | $126 | $29 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $18 | $85 | $67 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 15 | $53 | $339 | $286 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 23 | $155 | $1.4K | $1.2K |
| unranked | 4 | $64 | — | +$64 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +635 | $509 | $509 | 17 | 10-26 19:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | +508 | $70 | $81 | 6 | 10-26 07:22 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +470 | $48 | $48 | 17 | 10-10 19:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +259 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 09-20 04:40 |
| Cheery-Science 0x3089…92f6 | No | +255 | $216 | $216 | 1 | 10-09 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +120 | $19 | $19 | 6 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +120 | $102 | $102 | 5 | 10-26 07:22 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +114 | $15 | $15 | 10 | 10-26 08:27 |
| Quizzical-Hire 0x4337…8882 | Yes | +111 | $14 | $14 | 6 | 09-18 07:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | Yes | +100 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-09 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x9530…5699 | No | +100 | $85 | $85 | 1 | 10-09 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +88 | $77 | $77 | 4 | 09-29 00:38 |
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +82 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 09-29 13:13 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +80 | $76 | $155 | 7 | 10-25 20:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | +70 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-26 19:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | +70 | $61 | $61 | 1 | 10-25 18:45 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +67 | $8 | $19 | 4 | 10-11 02:53 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +51 | $48 | $48 | 3 | 09-27 00:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +50 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-09 17:35 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +50 | $44 | $44 | 5 | 09-27 00:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | +50 | $44 | $44 | 1 | 10-09 21:09 |
| Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | No | +40 | $32 | $32 | 2 | 10-26 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +40 | $6 | $12 | 4 | 10-12 04:07 |
| Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-26 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +40 | $35 | $35 | 2 | 10-09 17:35 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 2 | 10-26 07:28 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +40 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 09-21 11:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | +40 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 10-26 07:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | +40 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 10-26 07:28 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +34 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 09-29 00:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +30 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | +30 | $26 | $26 | 2 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | +30 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 10-26 07:22 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $24 | $56 | 4 | 10-26 08:57 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +29 | $27 | $27 | 2 | 09-24 08:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x9472…f660 | Yes | +21 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-26 07:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-26 07:28 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-25 19:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-09 17:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x122c…fbed | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-26 11:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x00f7…57ff | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 09-20 04:57 |
| Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-18 00:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-26 07:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x122c…fbed | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-26 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 10-25 18:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 10-25 18:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | Yes | +18 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | No | +18 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0d4…0dd1 | Yes | +11 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 09-27 00:00 |
| Sardonic-Caper 0x2d6c…e3f5 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-17 15:24 |
| Sardonic-Caper 0x2d6c…e3f5 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-17 15:24 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 09-06 04:32 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +6 | $12 | $44 | 12 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +6 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-26 07:22 |
| Wordy-Doctrine 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-06 04:32 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 09-27 00:00 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | +1 | $11 | $238 | 13 | 10-26 07:22 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 19:00:39 | (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | Yes | BUY | 70 | 23¢ | $16 | 0xa897ce… |
| 10-26 19:00:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 70 | 77¢ | $54 | 0xa897ce… |
| 10-26 11:42:50 | (anonymous) 0x122c…fbed | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x3744d0… |
| 10-26 11:42:50 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x3744d0… |
| 10-26 08:57:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xc0780b… |
| 10-26 08:57:08 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0xc0780b… |
| 10-26 08:57:08 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xc0780b… |
| 10-26 08:40:39 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x1b6df1… |
| 10-26 08:40:39 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x1b6df1… |
| 10-26 08:27:44 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | SELL | 0 | 85¢ | $0 | 0x1474f0… |
| 10-26 08:27:44 | Fine-Tassel 0x0084…2ecf | Yes | SELL | 0 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x1474f0… |
| 10-26 08:27:42 | Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x495a5c… |
| 10-26 08:27:42 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x5f1965… |
| 10-26 08:27:42 | (anonymous) 0x122c…fbed | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x495a5c… |
| 10-26 08:27:42 | Fine-Tassel 0x0084…2ecf | Yes | BUY | 0 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x5f1965… |
| 10-26 08:27:42 | Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x5f1965… |
| 10-26 07:34:15 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | No | SELL | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x84b4db… |
| 10-26 07:34:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0x84b4db… |
| 10-26 07:33:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 100 | 80¢ | $80 | 0x3c8d51… |
| 10-26 07:33:54 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | No | SELL | 100 | 80¢ | $80 | 0x3c8d51… |
| 10-26 07:31:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xf8badb… |
| 10-26 07:31:20 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xf8badb… |
| 10-26 07:28:21 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x63c85c… |
| 10-26 07:28:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x63c85c… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x9639e5… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 100 | 80¢ | $80 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | No | SELL | 200 | 80¢ | $160 | 0xf30bf7… |
| 10-26 07:28:20 | (anonymous) 0x0479…8177 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x9639e5… |
| 10-26 07:25:54 | (anonymous) 0x9472…f660 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 17¢ | $4 | 0x6c1ed6… |
| 10-26 07:25:54 | (anonymous) 0xf814…5f09 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 17¢ | $4 | 0x6c1ed6… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x6690cb… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x3e2c83… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 62 | 22¢ | $14 | 0xd900f0… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | Yes | BUY | 18 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | No | BUY | 18 | 77¢ | $14 | 0x3673d6… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 22¢ | $1 | 0xc19d10… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xf814…5f09 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 23¢ | $3 | 0x3e2c83… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 24¢ | $7 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x46f042… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x46f042… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | BUY | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0x6690cb… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x57b847… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $15 | 0x3e2c83… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | SELL | 62 | 76¢ | $47 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 23¢ | $4 | 0x3673d6… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 60 | 76¢ | $46 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 6 | 78¢ | $5 | 0xc19d10… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xf26c…d5c5 | No | BUY | 310 | 76¢ | $237 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x57b847… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 62 | 78¢ | $48 | 0xd900f0… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:38 | Acceptable-Asset 0x0032…731a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x9190c8… |
| 10-26 07:22:36 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xbd965d… |
| 10-26 07:22:36 | (anonymous) 0xf814…5f09 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 23¢ | $2 | 0xbd965d… |
| 10-26 07:22:36 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 23¢ | $3 | 0xbd965d… |
| 10-26 06:45:44 | Adept-Loafer 0xaa40…4629 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xef6828… |
| 10-26 06:45:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xef6828… |
| 10-25 20:33:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xdac9b4… |
| 10-25 20:33:33 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0xdac9b4… |
| 10-25 20:14:26 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | SELL | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xb3d369… |
| 10-25 20:14:26 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xb3d369… |
| 10-25 19:13:26 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x0c7974… |
| 10-25 19:13:26 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0x0c7974… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | SELL | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 60 | 88¢ | $53 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | SELL | 50 | 14¢ | $7 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | BUY | 62 | 88¢ | $54 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | Adept-Loafer 0xaa40…4629 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x625b…22cf | No | BUY | 70 | 87¢ | $61 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x8314…0b88 | Yes | BUY | 419 | 12¢ | $51 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-25 18:45:38 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | No | BUY | 24 | 88¢ | $21 | 0x739cef… |
| 10-18 00:31:09 | (anonymous) 0xd322…8503 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x035faf… |
| 10-18 00:31:09 | Antique-Calcification 0xc3de…e227 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x035faf… |
| 10-17 12:56:47 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xabb78c… |
| 10-17 12:56:47 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 50 | 11¢ | $5 | 0xabb78c… |
| 10-17 12:49:59 | (anonymous) 0x7121…0abc | No | SELL | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x5a4807… |
| 10-17 12:49:59 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 12¢ | $7 | 0x5a4807… |
| 10-17 12:49:59 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x5a4807… |
| 10-17 12:49:59 | (anonymous) 0xd322…8503 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x5a4807… |
| 10-17 11:14:39 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | Yes | SELL | 0 | 12¢ | $0 | 0x1a8fc5… |
| 10-17 11:14:39 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 12¢ | $0 | 0x1a8fc5… |
| 10-17 11:10:24 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xdc332b… |
| 10-17 11:10:24 | (anonymous) 0x1fa1…89b3 | No | SELL | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0xdc332b… |
| 10-17 11:10:15 | (anonymous) 0x1fa1…89b3 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x37365b… |