Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
open
Total volume
$3,676
$50 in 24h
Trades
356
Unique wallets
84
Liquidity
$1,936
End date
2026-11-03
First seen
2026-09-05
last 10-30 20:14
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-10.7¢
(top1%: 15% YES on $516
vs crowd: 25% YES on $2.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 29 | $257 | $1.2K | $938 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 35 | $324 | $647 | $323 |
| 🐟 Fish | 19 | $103 | $191 | $88 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1 | $2 | — | +$2 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 19 | $75 | $441 | $366 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $2 | $50 | $48 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $2 | $21 | $18 |
| Median | 3 | $2 | $31 | $28 |
| Below median | 6 | $20 | $88 | $68 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $18 | $33 | $15 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 21 | $154 | $366 | $212 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 24 | $337 | $1.0K | $667 |
| unranked | 1 | $76 | — | +$76 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +597 | $92 | $92 | 15 | 10-29 02:16 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +448 | $363 | $363 | 13 | 10-26 08:04 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +245 | $200 | $212 | 5 | 10-28 20:14 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +245 | $47 | $47 | 2 | 10-28 20:14 |
| Those-Skywalk 0x5529…e5b9 | Yes | +148 | $26 | $26 | 6 | 10-14 08:11 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +141 | $121 | $121 | 10 | 09-29 21:02 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | +118 | $23 | $23 | 5 | 10-28 20:14 |
| Bold-Health 0x8728…0882 | Yes | +111 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 09-26 18:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +61 | $54 | $54 | 4 | 09-29 21:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | +60 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 10-28 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | +60 | $51 | $51 | 4 | 10-29 02:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | +54 | $17 | $28 | 5 | 10-29 02:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | +54 | $44 | $75 | 3 | 10-20 05:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x8bdb…d90f | No | +51 | $43 | $43 | 4 | 09-24 02:45 |
| Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | Yes | +50 | $10 | $11 | 3 | 10-28 20:14 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +50 | $39 | $39 | 3 | 10-01 05:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +50 | $39 | $39 | 2 | 10-01 05:56 |
| Rubbery-Policy 0x2cfe…e4de | Yes | +45 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 10-28 20:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-20 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +40 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 09-24 07:53 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-20 05:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-20 05:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cf6…3ed9 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 10-20 04:47 |
| Monumental-Generator 0x09fe…76ee | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 10-20 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +40 | $34 | $34 | 2 | 09-24 07:53 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +38 | $32 | $32 | 3 | 09-22 09:35 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +33 | $29 | $29 | 3 | 10-20 17:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xa410…0e3e | Yes | +30 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-30 15:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x5eef…4fe1 | No | +25 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 09-24 02:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +24 | $6 | $13 | 3 | 10-28 21:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | +24 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-28 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +24 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 10-20 05:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | +20 | $21 | $79 | 4 | 10-20 05:32 |
| Sniveling-Yogurt 0x6bdc…6fcd | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 4 | 09-24 02:45 |
| This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-28 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | +20 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-30 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-28 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-20 05:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +20 | $4 | $5 | 3 | 10-14 08:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-28 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-20 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-21 17:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x71a3…3fb4 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-26 04:57 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-26 15:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x54ba…4b30 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-20 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-20 04:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-01 05:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x4056…c4f1 | No | +18 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-05 03:48 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | +18 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 10-25 18:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x7821…9855 | No | +16 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 09-09 01:56 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +15 | $1 | $8 | 3 | 10-29 03:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +15 | $6 | $9 | 4 | 10-29 03:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +15 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-20 17:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x04ec…45e8 | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 09-29 21:02 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +14 | $12 | $12 | 7 | 09-24 03:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x9209…a393 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-20 05:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x3c7b…6863 | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-20 05:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $10 | 7 | 10-30 15:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $6 | 3 | 10-28 20:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 20:14:52 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0cd3f1… |
| 10-30 20:14:52 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0cd3f1… |
| 10-30 15:44:40 | (anonymous) 0xa410…0e3e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x833e9b… |
| 10-30 15:44:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x833e9b… |
| 10-30 15:44:40 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x833e9b… |
| 10-29 22:46:01 | (anonymous) 0x7121…0abc | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x92ac42… |
| 10-29 22:46:01 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x92ac42… |
| 10-29 03:33:38 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x69f7a7… |
| 10-29 03:33:38 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x69f7a7… |
| 10-29 03:33:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 15 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x69f7a7… |
| 10-29 03:33:34 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xff1953… |
| 10-29 03:33:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xff1953… |
| 10-29 03:33:34 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xff1953… |
| 10-29 02:16:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 107 | 7¢ | $8 | 0xdc6995… |
| 10-29 02:16:25 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $18 | 0xdc6995… |
| 10-29 02:16:25 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xdc6995… |
| 10-29 02:16:25 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | SELL | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xdc6995… |
| 10-29 02:16:25 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | Yes | SELL | 23 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xdc6995… |
| 10-28 21:15:17 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 12¢ | $3 | 0xcef0b4… |
| 10-28 21:15:17 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | SELL | 11 | 88¢ | $10 | 0xcef0b4… |
| 10-28 21:15:17 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 15 | 88¢ | $13 | 0xcef0b4… |
| 10-28 20:51:31 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 13¢ | $2 | 0x14d5d8… |
| 10-28 20:51:31 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | SELL | 19 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x14d5d8… |
| 10-28 20:15:52 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x9351e1… |
| 10-28 20:15:52 | Rubbery-Policy 0x2cfe…e4de | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x9351e1… |
| 10-28 20:15:08 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xf435c3… |
| 10-28 20:15:08 | (anonymous) 0xa39d…511b | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xf435c3… |
| 10-28 20:15:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 25 | 88¢ | $22 | 0x387655… |
| 10-28 20:15:02 | Rubbery-Policy 0x2cfe…e4de | Yes | BUY | 25 | 12¢ | $3 | 0x387655… |
| 10-28 20:14:50 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | Yes | SELL | 3 | 15¢ | $0 | 0x05bd53… |
| 10-28 20:14:50 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 3 | 85¢ | $3 | 0x05bd53… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | Yes | BUY | 23 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 18¢ | $5 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 19¢ | $9 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 18¢ | $2 | 0xa41f01… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xa41f01… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 107 | 81¢ | $87 | 0xa41f01… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 19¢ | $38 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 0 | 83¢ | $0 | 0x1b3cb7… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 19¢ | $8 | 0xa41f01… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | Yes | BUY | 23 | 17¢ | $4 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Blue-Bend 0x9495…468f | Yes | BUY | 0 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x1b3cb7… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x7121…0abc | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | This-Wiretap 0xac7a…414f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 96 | 82¢ | $79 | 0x55d296… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Past-Disguise 0x52eb…67ac | Yes | BUY | 21 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Jubilant-Park 0xcbdf…6a49 | Yes | SELL | 436 | 19¢ | $83 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | (anonymous) 0x84bb…1477 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 19¢ | $5 | 0x2647c9… |
| 10-28 20:14:49 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | Yes | BUY | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xa41f01… |
| 10-28 05:29:50 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x8c3720… |
| 10-28 05:29:50 | (anonymous) 0xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x8c3720… |
| 10-26 21:43:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 18¢ | $8 | 0x520b19… |
| 10-26 21:43:20 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x520b19… |
| 10-26 21:43:20 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 18¢ | $6 | 0x520b19… |
| 10-26 15:06:39 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x702dd4… |
| 10-26 15:06:39 | Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x702dd4… |
| 10-26 08:04:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x019fbf… |
| 10-26 08:04:41 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x019fbf… |
| 10-26 04:57:24 | (anonymous) 0x71a3…3fb4 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x87e318… |
| 10-26 04:57:24 | (anonymous) 0x29ed…a8da | No | SELL | 9 | 83¢ | $7 | 0x87e318… |
| 10-26 04:57:24 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x87e318… |
| 10-26 03:25:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xd85cfb… |
| 10-26 03:25:50 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xd85cfb… |
| 10-26 02:39:32 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xadbc27… |
| 10-26 02:39:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xadbc27… |
| 10-25 22:53:41 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x4e1823… |
| 10-25 22:53:41 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x4e1823… |
| 10-25 22:50:50 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x0b37de… |
| 10-25 22:50:50 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x0b37de… |
| 10-25 22:50:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 79¢ | $32 | 0x0b37de… |
| 10-25 18:07:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x82fcf3… |
| 10-25 18:07:15 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | SELL | 5 | 72¢ | $4 | 0x82fcf3… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 20¢ | $10 | 0x4d9974… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xa881ea… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | No | BUY | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xa881ea… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xa881ea… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | BUY | 50 | 80¢ | $40 | 0x4d9974… |
| 10-25 18:06:45 | Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 21¢ | $9 | 0xa881ea… |
| 10-24 13:27:53 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xc232f6… |
| 10-24 13:27:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0xc232f6… |
| 10-24 13:27:35 | (anonymous) 0x28d4…f9d3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x37689d… |
| 10-24 13:27:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 79¢ | $32 | 0x37689d… |
| 10-24 13:27:35 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x37689d… |
| 10-22 22:41:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x1d9caf… |
| 10-22 22:41:18 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x1d9caf… |
| 10-21 21:03:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x2d1b8b… |
| 10-21 21:03:35 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | SELL | 20 | 75¢ | $15 | 0x2d1b8b… |
| 10-21 19:09:15 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 20¢ | $8 | 0xd8c9de… |
| 10-21 19:09:15 | (anonymous) 0xa2a2…fae9 | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xd8c9de… |
| 10-21 19:09:15 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0xd8c9de… |
| 10-21 17:58:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xd0a044… |
| 10-21 17:58:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xe01847… |
| 10-21 17:58:53 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xd0a044… |