Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election by 85%-90%?
open
Total volume
$5,177
Trades
471
Unique wallets
101
Liquidity
$230
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-25
last 11-04 06:14
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-10.9¢
(top1%: 9% YES on $531
vs crowd: 20% YES on $3.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 38 | $365 | $2.0K | $1.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 36 | $314 | $685 | $372 |
| 🐟 Fish | 20 | $33 | $238 | $204 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $27 | $23 | +$3 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 24 | $49 | $482 | $432 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $10 | $49 | $39 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $74 | $40 | +$34 |
| Median | 5 | $108 | $7 | +$102 |
| Below median | 6 | $28 | $36 | $8 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 9 | $12 | $85 | $73 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 18 | $107 | $552 | $445 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 29 | $352 | $1.7K | $1.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +799 | $166 | $166 | 38 | 10-31 15:05 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +763 | $572 | $572 | 32 | 11-04 01:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x69d1…7c8b | Yes | +441 | $65 | $84 | 3 | 09-11 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | +195 | $35 | $171 | 6 | 10-25 00:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +147 | $30 | $32 | 10 | 10-31 09:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +147 | $119 | $180 | 12 | 10-31 09:51 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +132 | $108 | $108 | 9 | 09-24 04:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +123 | $94 | $94 | 8 | 09-24 20:35 |
| Expert-Neuropathologist 0x6560…e164 | Yes | +109 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 11-01 08:49 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +91 | $27 | $27 | 11 | 10-23 21:01 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +85 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 09-24 20:35 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +74 | $58 | $58 | 3 | 10-25 00:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | Yes | +60 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 10-19 14:03 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +60 | $53 | $53 | 3 | 09-20 04:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x9435…91fd | No | +60 | $46 | $46 | 3 | 10-19 13:43 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | +56 | $41 | $41 | 6 | 10-23 21:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xcf43…b321 | No | +52 | $33 | $34 | 3 | 09-24 20:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | Yes | +50 | $16 | $30 | 11 | 10-03 01:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | +50 | $39 | $126 | 8 | 10-25 00:29 |
| Liquid-Argument 0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | +45 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-06 08:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +44 | $16 | $16 | 5 | 10-19 21:08 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +40 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 10-19 21:08 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +40 | $27 | $27 | 2 | 11-04 06:14 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +40 | $28 | $28 | 2 | 10-19 21:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x8461…94d7 | No | +25 | $19 | $19 | 2 | 09-11 19:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x170a…d0b6 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-25 00:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-21 00:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +20 | $4 | $7 | 3 | 11-04 02:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-16 16:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e7c…fa1d | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 10-19 15:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x96bf…403e | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-23 03:34 |
| Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-23 20:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | Yes | +20 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-19 21:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | +20 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 10-25 00:29 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-10 17:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x170a…d0b6 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-25 00:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x0cfc…7f6b | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-21 00:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 11-01 08:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ef0…e28e | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 09-16 16:57 |
| Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-06 13:28 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 09-10 17:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | +20 | $15 | $61 | 3 | 10-25 00:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 09-24 20:35 |
| Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | No | +20 | $19 | $65 | 2 | 09-11 17:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 10-23 00:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e7c…fa1d | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-19 13:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x96bf…403e | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-23 03:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-21 00:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 10-25 00:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xeaa3…8edd | No | +18 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-11 19:30 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +18 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 09-11 19:28 |
| Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | +15 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-25 00:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x8fab…cb94 | Yes | +14 | $6 | $12 | 5 | 09-24 20:35 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +4 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 09-14 14:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x86ca…16be | Yes | +3 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 09-06 08:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 11-04 02:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $14 | 3 | 09-25 01:05 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 06:14:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 30 | 68¢ | $20 | 0xb3ea5e… |
| 11-04 06:14:24 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 30 | 68¢ | $20 | 0xb3ea5e… |
| 11-04 02:50:12 | (anonymous) 0x6891…6bb9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x8f01b6… |
| 11-04 02:50:12 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | SELL | 64 | 40¢ | $26 | 0x8f01b6… |
| 11-04 02:50:12 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 33 | 50¢ | $16 | 0x8f01b6… |
| 11-04 02:50:12 | (anonymous) 0x28a6…d399 | No | SELL | 9 | 49¢ | $4 | 0x8f01b6… |
| 11-04 02:50:12 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x8f01b6… |
| 11-04 02:36:24 | (anonymous) 0xef13…63d9 | No | BUY | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0xdfd17b… |
| 11-04 02:36:24 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 5 | 52¢ | $3 | 0xdfd17b… |
| 11-04 02:29:04 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x56d4f5… |
| 11-04 02:29:04 | (anonymous) 0x28a6…d399 | No | BUY | 9 | 64¢ | $6 | 0x56d4f5… |
| 11-04 02:29:04 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 37¢ | $11 | 0x56d4f5… |
| 11-04 02:29:04 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x56d4f5… |
| 11-04 02:29:04 | Impure-Township 0x38d8…ea7c | Yes | BUY | 64 | 37¢ | $23 | 0x56d4f5… |
| 11-04 01:27:21 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x0a2404… |
| 11-04 01:27:21 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0x0a2404… |
| 11-04 01:27:21 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 83¢ | $33 | 0x0a2404… |
| 11-03 23:40:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x43d876… |
| 11-03 23:40:49 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x43d876… |
| 11-01 08:49:27 | Expert-Neuropathologist 0x6560…e164 | Yes | BUY | 109 | 13¢ | $14 | 0x091065… |
| 11-01 08:49:27 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | No | BUY | 20 | 88¢ | $18 | 0x091065… |
| 11-01 08:49:27 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 60 | 13¢ | $8 | 0x091065… |
| 11-01 08:49:27 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x091065… |
| 11-01 08:49:27 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x091065… |
| 10-31 15:05:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 86¢ | $26 | 0xbb7721… |
| 10-31 15:05:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0xbb7721… |
| 10-31 09:52:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xe32c3d… |
| 10-31 09:52:13 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 17 | 11¢ | $2 | 0xe32c3d… |
| 10-31 09:51:36 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 17 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xec07d4… |
| 10-31 09:51:36 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 17 | 86¢ | $15 | 0xec07d4… |
| 10-31 09:51:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 15¢ | $14 | 0xbaa34b… |
| 10-31 09:51:31 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 78 | 85¢ | $66 | 0xbaa34b… |
| 10-31 09:51:31 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | BUY | 17 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xbaa34b… |
| 10-27 20:23:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 11 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x96085d… |
| 10-27 20:23:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x96085d… |
| 10-25 04:08:14 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x39df7f… |
| 10-25 04:08:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x39df7f… |
| 10-25 00:29:08 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x577003… |
| 10-25 00:29:08 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x577003… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0x5e536c… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x1284…3694 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 60 | 22¢ | $13 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 208 | 22¢ | $46 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 21¢ | $0 | 0xa76dba… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 0 | 79¢ | $0 | 0xa76dba… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | SELL | 40 | 78¢ | $31 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0x5e536c… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 22¢ | $4 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:29:00 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | SELL | 19 | 78¢ | $15 | 0x46f3b0… |
| 10-25 00:15:59 | Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | BUY | 15 | 23¢ | $3 | 0xf1ee45… |
| 10-25 00:15:59 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 23¢ | $3 | 0xf1ee45… |
| 10-25 00:10:14 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | SELL | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xdbdbfa… |
| 10-25 00:10:14 | (anonymous) 0x170a…d0b6 | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xdbdbfa… |
| 10-25 00:09:54 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x47d5f6… |
| 10-25 00:09:54 | (anonymous) 0x170a…d0b6 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x47d5f6… |
| 10-25 00:07:35 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | SELL | 41 | 77¢ | $32 | 0xe8fc32… |
| 10-25 00:07:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 41 | 77¢ | $32 | 0xe8fc32… |
| 10-25 00:02:33 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | SELL | 30 | 77¢ | $23 | 0xdb7c47… |
| 10-25 00:02:33 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 23¢ | $7 | 0xdb7c47… |
| 10-25 00:02:32 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | SELL | 30 | 77¢ | $23 | 0xa21655… |
| 10-25 00:02:32 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 23¢ | $7 | 0xa21655… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 21¢ | $4 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 34 | 79¢ | $27 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0x4959…a6f5 | No | BUY | 41 | 80¢ | $33 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 172 | 79¢ | $136 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0x0d7d…7d74 | Yes | BUY | 498 | 21¢ | $103 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0xca75…0a64 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0xfe46…6133 | No | BUY | 40 | 80¢ | $32 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0xea7f…b855 | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | No | BUY | 20 | 79¢ | $16 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-25 00:02:27 | Spicy-Neighbour 0x8998…2707 | No | BUY | 30 | 80¢ | $24 | 0xb92d80… |
| 10-24 19:47:57 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | SELL | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xb87bc2… |
| 10-24 19:47:57 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 78¢ | $16 | 0xb87bc2… |
| 10-24 06:15:14 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x7dd457… |
| 10-24 06:15:14 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x7dd457… |
| 10-23 21:01:18 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xa090f4… |
| 10-23 21:01:18 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xa090f4… |
| 10-23 20:56:03 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xc34b91… |
| 10-23 20:56:03 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xc34b91… |
| 10-23 20:25:33 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9225dc… |
| 10-23 20:25:33 | Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0x9225dc… |
| 10-23 20:23:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 23¢ | $7 | 0xf41a6d… |
| 10-23 20:23:30 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 30 | 77¢ | $23 | 0xf41a6d… |
| 10-23 03:34:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 77¢ | $31 | 0xea2aa4… |
| 10-23 03:34:45 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | SELL | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xea2aa4… |
| 10-23 03:34:45 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0xe403bb… |
| 10-23 03:34:45 | (anonymous) 0x96bf…403e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 23¢ | $5 | 0xea2aa4… |
| 10-23 03:34:45 | (anonymous) 0x96bf…403e | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0xe403bb… |
| 10-23 02:26:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xcfac2a… |
| 10-23 02:26:54 | (anonymous) 0xcda4…70f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xcfac2a… |
| 10-23 00:12:29 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xb93cc2… |
| 10-23 00:12:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xb93cc2… |
| 10-22 09:23:44 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xf3289d… |
| 10-22 09:23:44 | (anonymous) 0x6608…a502 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf3289d… |